When Bad Data is Good News

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By James Helliwell

Hello traders

I hope you had a good week!

Last Fridays post was titled “Don’t Fear the Fed”, and also emphasised the importance of "time in the market" over "timing the market." Exactly one week later, we find ourselves at a new all-time high in the S&P 500 with the Jackson Hole symposium now in the rear-view mirror. Just as I had anticipated, things didn’t turn out to be as bad as many investors had feared when it came to the Fed’s proposed runway for scaling back stimulus. In fact, the three key words “time will tell” proved to be sufficient for bulls to revive their optimism as the timing of the eventual withdrawal was effectively deferred, for the time being at least.

Given that today is the first Friday of the month, there will of course be a lot of attention given to the jobs report out later. Pundits will no doubt debate whether or not this has any bearing on the direction of U.S. monetary policy, and investors will weigh the print against Jerome Powell’s words last week. Any positive surprise in the data might well be met with pessimism in equities and government bonds particularly, as ‘good data’ will be ‘bad’ for the prospects of stimulus being withdrawn sooner rather than later. Of course, many investors will be hoping for a tepid set of numbers to keep the QE party alive and see new highs in the stock market.

We should of course look beyond conjecture and refer to our Checklist process for more objective guidance in navigating the markets. We have just updated our Monthly Checklist Report for September which Trading Club members have immediate access to.

Here’s a quick preview of one of the Checklists that has caught my eye this month. Whilst I cannot reveal the scores to you here just yet, I look forward to doing so in the next couple of weeks.

If you would like to learn more about our methods, and join me for more analysis in real-time, head to milliondollartraders.com and check out MDT course and Trading Club pages where you can preview everything that we cover.

In the meantime, why not head over to our YouTube Channel for our latest FREE videos which I will be bringing to you each week in 2021! As there’s no charge for this content, it would be great if you could support the channel by leaving a comment and subscribing.

Have a great weekend,


Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Even though we do our best to provide reliable data, you should not trade based on this information.

© Copyright 2021 Lex van Dam Financial Education. Further distribution prohibited.

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